Thursday, September 08, 2005
Peak Age for Ultimate?
[Apologies for lack of posts while (still) on vacation. This will be brief.]
I have always felt instinctively that 28 was the optimal age for ultimate. Somehow, this age represents for me a time when muscles are well developed, age deterioration is minimal, stamina is good, the mind has lost the knowitallness of adolescence, curmudgeonliness has not set in, yet a considerable wealth of experience has been amassed -- but not so much that ossification of the mind has begun. In my personal experience and observation, 28 represents all these things. Also, I have always just liked this number, since it is "perfect" (equal to the sum of its divisors: 28 = 1 + 2 + 4 + 7 + 14).
Clearly I am swayed by my own prejudices. In a running event, e.g., you can pretty much statistically prove that some certain age is optimal, but this is harder in a team sport. I wonder if people generally concur with my own assessment or if feelings differ greatly?
I have always felt instinctively that 28 was the optimal age for ultimate. Somehow, this age represents for me a time when muscles are well developed, age deterioration is minimal, stamina is good, the mind has lost the knowitallness of adolescence, curmudgeonliness has not set in, yet a considerable wealth of experience has been amassed -- but not so much that ossification of the mind has begun. In my personal experience and observation, 28 represents all these things. Also, I have always just liked this number, since it is "perfect" (equal to the sum of its divisors: 28 = 1 + 2 + 4 + 7 + 14).
Clearly I am swayed by my own prejudices. In a running event, e.g., you can pretty much statistically prove that some certain age is optimal, but this is harder in a team sport. I wonder if people generally concur with my own assessment or if feelings differ greatly?
# posted by Eric Zaslow @ 9/08/2005 09:22:00 AM 
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Aw shit, I guess it's all downhill from here.
I think that that's generally true for those who start playing at a young age, but for those of us who didn't start playing ultimate until the middle of college (or later), I would think that improvement due to refinment of skill still outpaces physical deterioration for a few more years.
Moreover, I'd guess that for the well trained ameteur athlete, the usual peak of motor skills is after 28. What really starts to decline at that age is the ability to recover from the wear and tear of training/practice (and injuries).
I think that that's generally true for those who start playing at a young age, but for those of us who didn't start playing ultimate until the middle of college (or later), I would think that improvement due to refinment of skill still outpaces physical deterioration for a few more years.
Moreover, I'd guess that for the well trained ameteur athlete, the usual peak of motor skills is after 28. What really starts to decline at that age is the ability to recover from the wear and tear of training/practice (and injuries).
The baseball analysis is interesting. One could approach individual and quantifiable ultimate skills similarly (goals thrown/caught, blocks) -- that is, if we had reliable statistics. However, a quantitative analysis of "overall value" is always a gray area. You can try to cook up some combination of statistics to measure total worth to a team, but this can also be done arbitrary and nonsensically. (This debate is raging in baseball, as far as I understand: the quants versus the feelers.) I would be happy to hear what people's gut feelings are. Maybe 28 is too late in today's game, where people start earlier. Perhaps 26 is the new 28?
I'd say it would be 28 or 29, assuming the player started to play seriously while in college. I would expect this to decrease to about 26 when a lot more high schools and middle schools have programs.
I don't remember very many 30 year olds playing 15 years ago. I wonder whether the peak age has changed over time.
I don't remember very many 30 year olds playing 15 years ago. I wonder whether the peak age has changed over time.
Bill James theorized that young players with "old person skills" (in baseball, power and a good eye; in ultimate, good throws) tend to age worse than players with "young person skills" (mostly speed). If a fast player loses a step, he's still faster than most and will pick up other skills as he ages, but if a slow player loses a step, he just can't get open and is a liability on defense.
I feel that my peak was probably either in 1995 (age 30) or 1998 (age 33). 1995 was my best Nationals, but 1998 was my best year overall, until I nearly broke my thumb on a slightly gratuitous play on Day 1 of Nationals. 1993 was also going really well until I tweaked a hamstring also on a slightly gratuitious action (I was beating Fat Gary in a challenge sprint and decided to lay out to emphasize the victory) and got thrown off my training and timing.
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I feel that my peak was probably either in 1995 (age 30) or 1998 (age 33). 1995 was my best Nationals, but 1998 was my best year overall, until I nearly broke my thumb on a slightly gratuitous play on Day 1 of Nationals. 1993 was also going really well until I tweaked a hamstring also on a slightly gratuitious action (I was beating Fat Gary in a challenge sprint and decided to lay out to emphasize the victory) and got thrown off my training and timing.
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